European mining stocks are on the verge of capping the best year since 2016. For bulls, another year of gains comes down to copper prices reaching new heights.
Citigroup Inc. mining analysts say Glencore Plc is their top pick for 2026, estimating a 15% rally over the next 12 months as the company works to increase copper production. At Oddo BHF, the view is that Rio Tinto Group has a “very compelling road map” in copper and should be able to expand iron ore output as its Simandou project in Guinea ramps up.
For mining investors, it’s been a year of blockbuster returns driven by a red-hot market in copper, gold and silver. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources Index is up 22% so far in 2025, the third-best performance among industry groups. Maxime Kogge, a mining analyst at Oddo, says he’s bullish next year, though cautioned that China’s economic slowdown could spoil the mood.
“Copper should remain a positive driver and a positive thing to invest in 2026,” he said. “The rest of the metals is perhaps a bit more at risk.”
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.Com, also echoed that view. In the case of copper and silver, prices are supported by supply shortages and higher demand. But a growth scare in Europe or China next year is a worry for the broader market, and would put stock prices under pressure.
“Diversified, copper-levered majors with solid balance sheets look best placed for 2026,” she said, citing examples like Glencore, Rio Tinto and Anglo American Plc.
Over at Barclays Plc, strategists led by Emmanuel Cau upgraded mining stocks to overweight in their 2026 outlook, citing strong metal price momentum and a positive earnings outlook. Undemanding valuations, relatively modest ownership among investors, the broader reflation trade and expectations of Federal Reserve easing burnish the sector’s appeal, they said.
The positivity is also reflected in sentiment surveys. According to the Bank of America fund manager survey, European investors are now net 4% overweight the sector, the first positive reading since June.
UBS Group AG analysts picked copper, aluminum and lithium as the metals likely to outperform because of supply constraints and more demand coming from the energy, tech and defense industries. Among the diversified miners, they recommend Rio Tinto over Vale SA and BHP Group.
“We continue to see an attractive risk vs reward for selected copper equities with growth and catalysts,” they wrote.
By Bloomberg – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-12/copper-surge-is-seen-driving-more-european-mining-stock-gains