On Monday, October 13, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global refined zinc and refined lead markets are expected to face a significant supply surplus in 2026.
Lead
The group anticipates that global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 91,000 mt in 2025.
In 2026, the global refined lead surplus is projected to be slightly larger, reaching 102,000 mt.
ILZSG forecasts that global refined lead demand will increase by 1.8% to 13.25 million mt this year and grow by 0.9% to 13.37 million mt in 2026. Global refined lead production is expected to climb 2% to 13.34 million mt in 2025 and increase 1% to 13.47 million mt in 2026.
Global lead mine supply is projected to grow 0.7% to 4.57 million mt in 2025 and increase 2.2% to 4.67 million mt in 2026.
The supply growth in 2026 will be driven by a rebound in production in Europe, China, as well as Australia and the US.
Zinc
Global refined zinc demand is expected to increase 1.1% to 13.71 million mt in 2025 and grow 1% to 13.86 million mt in 2026.
Global refined zinc metal production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million mt in 2025.
Global zinc production is forecast to further increase 2.4% to 14.13 million mt in 2026.
Global refined zinc supply is expected to exceed demand in 2025, with a projected surplus of 85,000 mt. The refined zinc metal surplus in 2026 is forecast to reach 271,000 mt.
ILZSG noted that global zinc production will rise in 2026 due to increased supply of zinc concentrates, with production increases expected in Brazil, Canada, Norway, and China. The newly built Verkhny Ufaley smelter in Russia will also boost output.
ILZSG stated that after declines in 2023 and 2024, global zinc mine production is projected to grow 4.6% to 12.51 million mt in 2025, mainly driven by a 5% increase in production outside China.