Critical Metals (CRML) stock is surging after Greenland officially approved the transfer of an additional 50.5% stake in the Tanbreez rare earth project to the company. That brings Critical Metals’ total ownership to 92.5% — giving it majority control of what is widely considered one of the largest rare earth deposits ever discovered.
This is a big deal.
- Tanbreez sits in southern Greenland and contains nearly 45 million tons of rare earth material.
- About 27% of that is heavy rare earth elements — the kind essential for EV motors, defense systems, and high-precision technology.
- Right now, China controls 95% to 98% of the global heavy rare earth supply.
- Tanbreez is one of the few assets that could change that.
The legal overhang around partial ownership had been a real concern for investors. That concern is now gone. Chairman Tony Sage called it “a game-changing moment for Western rare earth supply security.”
On the same day, Texas Capital initiated coverage on Critical Metals stock with a Buy rating and a $20 price target — implying another 53% upside from current levels.
What the Market Is Telling Us About Critical Metals Stock
Critical Metals stock has been up about 21% since the start of 2026. Friday’s move adds to this upside. The stock broke through key moving averages, signaling renewed momentum.
There are real catalysts backing the move.
- A $120 million letter of intent from the Export-Import Bank of the United States signals government-level interest.
- A $1.5 billion joint venture with Saudi conglomerate TQB adds financial firepower.
- A pilot plant is targeted for May 2026.
- The company recently acquired a local Greenland construction firm to accelerate development.
That said, Critical Metals stock carries real risk. This is a pre-revenue company that lost $13 million last quarter.
Costs will continue to rise as the mine is built out. Execution risk is real — early-stage mining projects regularly face delays.
The consensus on Wall Street remains Strong Buy, with a mean price target of $17.50, suggesting 35% upside from here.
How Much Upside Does Critical Metals Stock Have From Here?
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